TSX Futures Slide as Brent Crude Craters 9.4% Overnight

The overnight story is oil, and it isn’t pretty. Brent crude collapsed 9.42% to $91.21 per barrel in overnight trading, one of the sharpest single-session drops in years for the international benchmark. WTI followed, shedding 3.57% to $88.90 per barrel. For Canadian investors, the implications are direct: energy is the TSX Composite’s largest sector weighting, and producers from Canadian Natural Resources to Cenovus Energy will face immediate selling pressure when markets open at 9:30 a.m. ET.

TSX Composite: Pressure at 35,193

The TSX is entering Friday’s session already in retreat, futures pointing toward the 35,193 level — down 0.82% from Thursday’s close. That decline would be meaningfully smaller than the S&P 500’s 1.21% slide or the NASDAQ’s brutal 2.15% drop, a relative cushion provided in part by gold’s resilience. Still, with energy names, financials, and materials all facing headwinds from different directions today, a flat-to-negative open is the base case. Watch the 35,000 psychological support level closely; a breach there on heavy volume would signal broader technical deterioration.

Gold Holds Above $4,058 — A Lifeline for Mining Names

Gold is the clear bright spot this morning, trading at $4,058.10 per ounce, up 0.28%, and holding comfortably in record-high territory. Silver is outperforming even gold, surging 1.44% to $58.63 per ounce — a move that points to speculative momentum in precious metals rather than pure safe-haven demand. Canadian senior miners including Agnico Eagle Mines and Barrick Gold should see support at the open, providing a partial offset to energy-sector losses. At current USD/CAD rates, gold is trading above C$5,580 per ounce, a figure that translates directly into exceptional margins for domestic producers.

Copper’s Quiet Strength Deserves Attention

Copper added 0.81% overnight to $6.3560 per pound, a move that cuts against the broader risk-off tone in equities and energy. The red metal’s resilience suggests industrial demand expectations — particularly from AI data-centre buildouts and electrification infrastructure — remain intact despite equity market turbulence. Canadian copper-exposed names on the TSX and TSX-V, including Teck Resources and First Quantum Minerals, could see differentiated performance from the broader resource selloff today. This copper-gold combination is a constructive signal for selective materials investors willing to look past the oil noise.

What’s on the Tape Today

Friday’s calendar is loaded with potential market-moving events. U.S. PCE inflation data for June lands at 8:30 a.m. ET — this is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, and any upside surprise would compound today’s equity weakness by pushing rate-cut expectations further out. Canadian investors should also note Canadian GDP data for May on the docket this morning, which will inform Bank of Canada rate-path expectations heading into the central bank’s September decision. On the earnings front, several large-cap U.S. technology names report after the close today, meaning NASDAQ volatility could extend into the weekend.

The setup for today favours defensive positioning in gold equities and selectively in copper names, while energy investors should brace for a volatile open. The PCE print at 8:30 a.m. ET will set the macro tone for the entire session — and potentially the week’s close.