- TSX Composite closed at 35,506, up 0.49%, as a record gold price of US$4,173/oz powered materials stocks sharply higher.
- Agnico Eagle surged 7.2% and Eldorado Gold jumped 8.1% after Fed minutes signalled a possible September rate cut, hammering real yields.
- Energy was the session’s drag: CNQ fell 1.8% and Cenovus dropped 2.1% after a bearish U.S. crude inventory build sent WTI to US$84.06.
- Friday’s U.S. June PCE print at 8:30 AM ET and Royal Bank’s Q3 earnings are the next major catalysts; watch TSX resistance at 35,600.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed at 35,506 on Thursday, July 30, 2026, up 173 points or 0.49% on the session — a solid but measured gain that understated the fireworks playing out beneath the surface. Volume was above the 30-day average as institutional desks rotated aggressively into materials and away from energy. The TSX’s relative underperformance versus U.S. peers was largely a function of that crude oil headwind, not a loss of domestic conviction.
Winners: Gold Miners and Copper Plays Steal the Session
The day belonged to precious metals. Gold surged US$138.80 to US$4,173.30 per ounce (+3.44%) — a fresh all-time high — as the U.S. Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes, released at 2:00 PM ET, showed two dissenting governors pushing for a September rate cut. That dovish signal sent real yields lower and gold exploding higher. At a USD/CAD rate of approximately 1.3580, gold traded near C$5,667 per ounce for Canadian producers — a staggering margin backdrop.
Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM.TO) was the TSX’s standout performer, surging +7.2% to C$142.80 on volume more than triple its 90-day average. Barrick Gold (ABX.TO) added +5.9% to C$38.45, while mid-tier producer Eldorado Gold (ELD.TO) jumped +8.1% to C$29.60 — its largest single-day move in over a year. Copper was nearly as dramatic: copper climbed US$0.23 to US$6.5040 per pound (+3.67%), its highest close since February, lifting Teck Resources (TECK.B.TO) +4.3% to C$78.90. Silver’s +2.82% move to US$59.49/oz also buoyed royalty names, with Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM.TO) gaining +5.1% to C$116.20.
Losers: Energy Stocks Bleed as Crude Slides
The energy sector was Thursday’s clear underperformer. WTI crude fell US$0.40 to US$84.06 per barrel (-0.47%) and Brent dropped US$1.46 to US$89.28 (-1.61%), pressured by a larger-than-expected U.S. inventory build reported by the EIA this morning. Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ.TO) shed -1.8% to C$54.30, and Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO) fell -2.1% to C$27.65. Tourmaline Oil (TOU.TO) bucked the crude trend slightly, down only -0.6% to C$71.40, supported by firmer natural gas futures.
The Macro Driver: Fed Minutes Rewrite the Rate Narrative
The catalyst for today’s broad risk-on move — especially pronounced on the NASDAQ’s +2.78% surge to 25,122 and the S&P 500’s +1.66% gain to 7,438 — was the Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes. Two governors explicitly flagged September as an appropriate window to begin cutting rates, citing cooling shelter inflation and a softening labour market. Canadian bond markets responded in kind, with the 10-year GoC yield slipping 6 basis points to 3.41%, providing modest tailwinds to rate-sensitive TSX sectors including REITs and utilities.
What to Watch Friday, July 31
Tomorrow is a data-heavy session that could extend or reverse today’s momentum. U.S. PCE inflation for June prints at 8:30 AM ET — the Fed’s preferred measure — and consensus is sitting at 2.3% year-over-year. A softer print would cement rate-cut expectations and likely push gold through US$4,200. On the earnings calendar, Royal Bank of Canada (RY.TO) reports Q3 fiscal results before the open; analysts are watching net interest margin guidance closely. Overnight, Bank of Japan policy minutes will be parsed for any signal on yen intervention, which could ripple into commodity currencies including the loonie. Technically, the TSX needs a clean break above 35,600 to confirm a new leg higher — watch that level at the open.
