Key Takeaways
- Global copper market deficit widened to 800,000 tonnes in H1 2026 the largest H1 deficit on record.
- Copper price is holding at $4.82/lb, up 18% year-to-date.
- EV adoption is the key demand driver: an average EV uses 83kg of copper vs 23kg for ICE vehicles.
- No major new copper mine is expected to come online before 2028 at the earliest.
The copper market’s supply-demand imbalance is widening faster than most analysts expected entering 2026. Wood Mackenzie’s mid-year update pegs the H1 2026 deficit at 800,000 tonnes the largest first-half shortfall on record driven by an acceleration in EV manufacturing and grid investment that is outpacing even the most optimistic supply projections.
The Demand Math
Every electric vehicle contains roughly 83 kilograms of copper about 3.6 times the 23 kilograms in a conventional ICE vehicle. Global EV sales hit 22 million units in 2025 and are tracking toward 28 million in 2026. That incremental EV demand alone is adding approximately 1.2 million tonnes of copper consumption annually more than the total output of the world’s largest copper mine (Escondida, Chile) in a year.
| Demand Source | 2026 Demand Growth | Copper Intensity |
|---|---|---|
| Electric vehicles | +1.2M tonnes | 83 kg/vehicle |
| Grid infrastructure | +0.8M tonnes | |
| Renewable energy | +0.5M tonnes | |
| Traditional uses | +0.2M tonnes | |
| Mine supply growth | +0.9M tonnes |
Canadian Exposure
Canada has significant copper exposure through Teck Resources (TECK.B.TO), which is transforming into a copper-focused miner following its coal division sale. Freeport-McMoRan and First Quantum Minerals also provide Canadian-listed copper exposure. At $4.82/lb copper, Teck’s QB2 mine in Chile is generating margins significantly above its $2.20/lb AISC, making it one of the most profitable large copper operations in the world.