S&P 500 Hits 7,650 as NASDAQ Leads Gains — What It Means for Canadian Investors

The S&P 500 added 0.17% to close at 7,650 on Monday, September 21, 2026, while the NASDAQ outperformed with a 0.39% gain to 26,523 — a signal that growth and technology names are reasserting leadership heading into the final stretch of Q3. The TSX Composite, by contrast, slipped 0.19% to 35,807, weighed down by a sharp 6.76% collapse in WTI crude to US$93.52 per barrel, which punished Canadian energy heavyweights.

The USD/CAD Factor: A Quiet Tailwind for Canadian Investors

The Canadian dollar held relatively steady, with the USD/CAD rate sitting at 1.4010 — meaning one U.S. dollar buys C$1.4010. For Canadian investors holding U.S. equities inside a TFSA or RRSP, this elevated exchange rate is a meaningful return amplifier. A U.S. holding that returned 0.17% in USD terms on the day translates to a virtually identical gain in CAD, since the loonie barely moved — but the cumulative effect of holding USD-denominated assets while the Canadian dollar remains weak is substantial. Every 1% depreciation in the CAD adds roughly 1% to the unhedged CAD return of a U.S. equity position.

Investors in hedged U.S. equity ETFs — products that strip out currency exposure — will have captured the raw USD equity return of approximately +0.17% on the S&P 500 today, while unhedged holders of funds like those tracking the S&P 500 in CAD received essentially the same today, given the stable FX rate. The real distinction shows up over weeks and months: with USD/CAD at 1.4010 versus a five-year average closer to 1.30, unhedged investors are already sitting on a substantial embedded FX gain.

Tech and Growth Drive the Session — Copper Flashes a Macro Signal

Today’s NASDAQ outperformance confirms that large-cap technology and AI-related names are the primary engine of U.S. equity momentum. Semiconductor and software stocks led intraday breadth, benefiting from expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will hold rates steady at its next meeting, preserving the relatively accommodative conditions that favour longer-duration growth assets. Fed funds futures continue to price in no hike through year-end, giving tech bulls a clear runway.

Away from equities, copper surged 3.21% to US$6.8275/lb — a notable macro signal. Copper’s strength typically reflects improving global industrial demand, and today’s move may be foreshadowing a rotation into cyclicals and materials if the economic data continues to hold. For U.S. markets, this could accelerate sector rotation out of defensive positions and into industrials, materials, and energy infrastructure — even as crude oil fell sharply.

Canadian Portfolio Implication: Hold Your U.S. Exposure, Watch the Hedge Ratio

For Canadian retail investors, the current environment makes a strong case for maintaining or modestly overweighting U.S. equity exposure, particularly in unhedged vehicles. With the loonie under structural pressure from weak oil prices — WTI at US$93.52 is down significantly on the session — and the Fed on hold, the USD/CAD rate is unlikely to compress sharply in the near term. That means the FX tailwind for unhedged U.S. holdings in TFSAs and RRSPs remains intact.

Investors should be selective, however: the sharp drop in crude is a headwind for Canadian energy stocks and could drag on the TSX further. Rotating some domestic energy weight into U.S. technology or industrials ETFs — unhedged, given current FX dynamics — offers both equity upside and continued currency support. Review your hedge ratio before the next Fed meeting; if the USD begins to soften, switching to a hedged product quickly becomes the prudent move.