- Teck Resources (TECK.B) rose 2.19% to $93.71 on September 22, driven by a China PMI beat that lifted the entire base metals complex.
- Copper surged 2.45% to $6.8505/lb (≈$9.59 CAD/lb), aided by falling LME inventories now at a 7-month low of 142,500 tonnes.
- China’s September manufacturing PMI came in at 50.4, topping the 50-point expansion threshold for the first time since June 2026.
- Nickel and aluminum lagged copper’s gains; Indonesian supply expansion and high global aluminum stocks continue to weigh on both metals.
Teck Resources (TSX: TECK.B) jumped 2.19% to $93.71 on September 22, 2026, leading Canadian mining stocks higher as a surprise uptick in China’s September manufacturing PMI ignited a broad-based rally across the base metals complex. Copper on the London Metal Exchange climbed 2.45% to $6.8505 per pound (approximately $9.59/lb CAD at the prevailing USD/CAD rate of 1.4004), its strongest single-session gain in nearly a month. Zinc, aluminum, and nickel joined the move, confirming that the rally was macro-driven rather than idiosyncratic.
China PMI Sparks Demand Optimism
China’s official National Bureau of Statistics manufacturing PMI for September came in at 50.4, crossing back above the 50-point expansion threshold for the first time since June and beating consensus estimates of 49.8. The reading signals renewed factory activity in the world’s largest consumer of base metals, which absorbs roughly 55% of global copper output and an even larger share of zinc and aluminum production. Investors interpreted the data as evidence that Beijing’s fiscal stimulus measures — including a $150 billion infrastructure bond program announced in August — are beginning to filter through to industrial demand.
LME copper inventories fell a further 4,200 tonnes in the week ended September 19, bringing total warehouse stocks to 142,500 tonnes, their lowest level since February. Tightening LME inventory combined with the PMI beat created a textbook short-covering catalyst, with algorithmic funds unwinding bearish positioning accumulated during August’s demand slump.
Teck Resources: Positioned at the Centre of the Rally
Teck Resources is Canada’s largest diversified miner and one of the TSX’s most direct proxies for base metals sentiment. The Vancouver-based company operates the Highland Valley Copper mine in British Columbia — one of Canada’s largest open-pit copper operations — and holds a significant stake in the Quebrada Blanca Phase 2 (QB2) copper project in Chile, which reached full nameplate capacity of 316,000 tonnes per year earlier in 2026. Every $0.10/lb move in copper translates to roughly $75 million in annualized EBITDA for Teck at current production volumes, making today’s 2.45% copper gain materially meaningful for the company’s near-term earnings outlook.
Teck’s steelmaking coal segment, while now a smaller part of the business following the 2024 Elk Valley Resources spinoff, continues to provide cash flow buffer. Analysts at TD Securities reiterated an Action List Buy rating on TECK.B last week with a $105.00 price target, citing QB2 ramp execution and copper’s structural deficit.
Aluminum and Nickel: A More Cautious Picture
Alcoa (NYSE: AA), a key aluminum benchmark, added a modest 0.47% to $44.64, reflecting aluminum’s more subdued session relative to copper. Global aluminum inventories remain elevated following a surge in Chinese smelter output earlier in the year, capping the upside despite the positive PMI signal. Nickel, proxied by Vale SA (NYSE: VALE) — which slipped 0.42% to $14.15 — continues to face structural headwinds from Indonesia’s aggressive laterite nickel expansion, which has kept LME nickel prices suppressed below $16,000/tonne for much of 2026.
| Asset | Price (USD) | Price (CAD) | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Copper (LME) | $6.8505/lb | ~$9.59/lb | +2.45% |
| Teck Resources (TECK.B) | — | $93.71 | +2.19% |
| Alcoa / Aluminum proxy | $44.64 | ~$62.52 | +0.47% |
| Vale SA / Nickel proxy | $14.15 | ~$19.82 | -0.42% |
Macro Outlook: Canadian Producers Watch for Follow-Through
For Canadian investors, the critical question is whether the PMI print represents a durable inflection or a one-month statistical blip. Sherritt International, which operates nickel and cobalt assets in Cuba and holds Canadian refining capacity in Fort Saskatchewan, Alberta, remains under pressure from sustained low nickel prices — a reminder that not all base metals are moving in lockstep. Meanwhile, First Quantum Minerals (TSX: FM), despite its ongoing Cobre Panama legal dispute, saw sympathetic buying today given its copper-heavy asset base. If China’s PMI holds above 50 through Q4 2026, Bay Street analysts project Canadian base metals producers could see consensus earnings upgrades of 8–15% heading into the next reporting season.
