TSX Slips 0.13% as Oil Surge Lifts Energy, Drags Broader Index

The TSX Composite closed at 35,706, down 47 points or 0.13% on Thursday, in a split session that rewarded commodity traders on one end while punishing defensive and precious-metals names on the other. Volume came in slightly below the 30-day average, consistent with a late-September session ahead of Friday’s key U.S. data releases. The S&P 500 shed a negligible 0.02% to 7,704 and the NASDAQ edged up 0.01% to 26,939, signalling that Wall Street’s hesitation was a macro wait-and-see rather than a risk-off flush.

Winners: Energy and Base Metals Lead the Charge

WTI crude surged 3.37% to US$95.27 per barrel — roughly C$134.55 at today’s USD/CAD rate of 1.4117 — while Brent jumped an even more pronounced 4.28% to US$107.49 (C$151.79). Supply disruption fears, stemming from renewed geopolitical tension in a key Middle Eastern export corridor, lit a fire under the Canadian energy patch. Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) was among the session’s standout performers, advancing approximately 2.8% on the day, while Cenovus Energy (CVE) gained close to 2.5%, both riding the crude tailwind into the close. The TSX Energy sub-index posted its best single-day gain in over three weeks.

Copper added 1.44% to US$6.7740/lb (C$9.56/lb), buoying base-metals names on the TSX Venture. Teck Resources (TECK.B) closed up roughly 1.9%, benefiting from simultaneous strength in copper and coking coal. The move in copper is being interpreted by traders as a demand signal out of China, where infrastructure stimulus spending data released overnight beat consensus estimates.

Losers: Gold Miners and Defensives Fade

Gold slipped 0.26% to US$4,307.20/oz (C$6,081.24/oz), and silver fell 0.39% to US$64.13/oz (C$90.54/oz), capping gains for the TSX’s heavyweight precious-metals cohort. Barrick Gold (ABX) shed approximately 1.2% and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) dropped near 0.9% as the stronger WTI print pushed real-yield expectations modestly higher, a headwind for non-yielding metals. Utilities and REITs also underperformed, with the TSX Capped REIT Index off roughly 0.6% as the bond market repriced slightly on the commodity inflation narrative.

The News That Moved Markets

The dominant story was a reported drone strike on a Red Sea tanker route that temporarily threatened crude flows, triggering algorithmic buy programs across WTI and Brent futures within the first 30 minutes of the North American session. Canadian energy executives moved swiftly to brief analysts on potential pricing upside, adding fuel to an already momentum-driven trade. Separately, China’s National Development and Reform Commission confirmed ¥500 billion in accelerated infrastructure spending, which underpinned copper’s 1.44% gain and broadly supported the materials complex even as gold softened.

What to Watch Tomorrow

Friday’s session will be shaped by the U.S. PCE Price Index for August, due at 8:30 AM ET — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. A hotter-than-expected print could lift USD/CAD above 1.42 and weigh further on gold while extending energy’s momentum. Canadian GDP data for Q2 (revised) also drops Friday morning and could move the loonie materially. On the earnings front, watch for commentary from Tourmaline Oil (TOU) at its investor day. Overnight, traders will monitor any escalation in Middle East shipping lane developments that could gap WTI higher at the open.