- Silver surged 1.46% to $64.39/oz (C$91.07) on September 25, outperforming all major commodities including gold, crude oil, and copper.
- Record Chinese solar manufacturing data and LBMA inventory drawdowns are fueling a structural supply deficit now projected at over 180 million ounces for 2026.
- TSX-listed First Majestic (AG), Endeavour Silver (EDR), and Silvercorp Metals (SVM) all carry strong analyst buy ratings with significant upside to current price targets.
- Friday’s U.S. PCE inflation print is the next key macro catalyst; a soft reading could push silver toward the $66–$67 technical resistance zone.
Silver was the standout commodity mover on September 25, 2026, climbing 1.46% to $64.39 per troy ounce (approximately $91.07 in Canadian dollars at the prevailing USD/CAD rate of 1.4143). The move outpaced gold’s modest 0.20% gain to $4,306.80/oz and left crude oil and natural gas firmly in the red, with Brent tumbling 6.68% and nat gas sliding 2.55% to $3.21/MMBtu.
What’s Driving the Move
The primary catalyst was a surge in Chinese photovoltaic (PV) cell manufacturing data released overnight, with August throughput revisions showing a record 58 gigawatts of new solar capacity installed — a figure that consumes roughly 100 million ounces of silver annually on its own. That data hit against a backdrop of already thin above-ground refined silver inventories at the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), which have declined for six consecutive months. Traders also pointed to a softer-than-expected U.S. durable goods report, which reduced near-term Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations and gave the entire precious metals complex a modest tailwind.
On the geopolitical front, renewed disruptions at a major Peruvian polymetallic mine — a key source of silver byproduct supply — added urgency to the supply narrative. Peru accounts for roughly 15% of global primary silver output, and any sustained curtailment could push the 2026 market deficit well above the 180-million-ounce shortfall already projected by the Silver Institute earlier this year.
TSX & TSX-V Names in Focus
First Majestic Silver Corp. (TSX: AG) was among the most active names on the TSX today, with shares responding positively to the spot price surge. The company’s Jerritt Canyon and San Dimas operations give it direct leverage to silver prices, and its all-in sustaining cost guidance of approximately $20–$22/oz for 2026 implies extraordinary margins at current spot levels. Endeavour Silver Corp. (TSX: EDR) also moved higher; the company’s Terronera mine in Jalisco, Mexico, reached commercial production earlier this year and is expected to add roughly 4 million silver-equivalent ounces annually. On the junior side, Silvercorp Metals Inc. (TSX: SVM) — which operates low-cost silver-lead-zinc mines in China — saw renewed interest given its direct exposure to Asian industrial demand trends.
Analyst Price Targets
| Company | Analyst / Firm | Price Target (CAD) | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| First Majestic (AG) | Scotiabank GBM | $28.50 | Sector Outperform |
| Endeavour Silver (EDR) | TD Cowen | $12.00 | Buy |
| Silvercorp Metals (SVM) | Canaccord Genuity | $7.75 | Speculative Buy |
What to Watch
Market participants are now watching the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index due Friday, which could either reinforce or undercut the dovish Fed narrative that helped lift silver today. A hotter-than-expected read would likely pressure the precious metals complex, while a soft print could push silver toward the $66–$67 resistance zone identified by technical analysts at Raymond James. The gold-to-silver ratio has now compressed to approximately 66.9x, down from a peak above 80x earlier this year — a trend that historically has attracted momentum buyers into silver.
