- The TSX Composite closed at 35,155, down 0.23%, underperforming U.S. markets as technology weakness offset energy-sector gains.
- WTI crude surged 2.93% to US$93.07/bbl on a surprise EIA inventory drawdown, driving CNQ and CVE sharply higher.
- Silver jumped 2.07% to US$61.34/oz, boosting Canadian precious metals producers including First Majestic Silver by an estimated 3.1%.
- Canada’s September jobs report and U.S. NFP data release Friday at 8:30 AM ET are the critical catalysts for next week’s market direction.
TSX Closes the Day in the Red
The S&P/TSX Composite Index finished Thursday at 35,155, down 81 points or 0.23% — a modest retreat to open the fourth quarter. The index traded in a range of roughly 34,980 to 35,290 through the session, with volume tracking slightly below the 30-day average as institutional players appeared cautious heading into a long calendar of October data releases. While the S&P 500 edged up 0.19% to 7,666 and the NASDAQ gained a marginal 0.04% to 26,872, Canadian equities couldn’t keep pace, weighed down by a soft technology sector.
Winners: Energy and Materials Light Up the Board
Energy was the clear sector winner of the day, powered by WTI crude surging 2.93% to US$93.07/bbl (C$132.55/bbl at the 1.4246 USD/CAD rate) — its strongest single-day gain in over three weeks. Canadian integrated producers and oil sands names were the primary beneficiaries. Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ.TO) led large-cap energy, climbing an estimated +2.8% on the session, while Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO) added approximately +2.4%, both tracking the WTI move closely. The catalyst: a larger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. crude inventories reported by the EIA, combined with renewed supply-cut signals from OPEC+ producers. Brent crude’s 1.06% decline to US$102.43/bbl was notable but did not dampen the WTI-linked enthusiasm for Canadian producers.
Materials also had a strong session. Gold climbed 0.49% to US$4,207.40/oz (C$5,993.37/oz) while silver surged 2.07% to US$61.34/oz (C$87.37/oz) — silver’s best single-day performance in nearly a month. First Majestic Silver (FR.TO) was among the top movers in the index, gaining an estimated +3.1% on the silver spike. Copper also held firm at US$6.5860/lb (+0.41%), supporting base metals names across the TSX.
Losers: Technology and Rate-Sensitive Sectors Pull Back
Canadian technology stocks bore the brunt of the selling. Shopify (SHOP.TO) shed an estimated 1.9% after a U.S. brokerage trimmed its price target, citing near-term margin pressure heading into the holiday quarter. Constellation Software (CSU.TO) slipped approximately 1.2% in sympathy with broader tech softness, despite no company-specific news. Utilities and rate-sensitive REITs also underperformed as bond yields crept higher following firmer-than-expected U.S. manufacturing data released this morning — a reminder that the Bank of Canada’s path to further cuts remains data-dependent.
The Key Drivers Behind Today’s Moves
Three catalysts defined October 1. First, the EIA crude inventory drawdown of 4.7 million barrels — well above the 1.9 million barrel consensus estimate — sent WTI sharply higher and lifted the entire Canadian energy complex. Second, U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.3 for September, crossing back into expansion territory for the first time since early 2025, which boosted the S&P 500 but simultaneously lifted yields and pressured growth stocks on both sides of the border. Third, silver’s breakout above the US$61/oz level attracted momentum buyers into Canadian precious metals names, extending a strong Q3 performance for the sector.
| Asset | Level | Day Change |
|---|---|---|
| TSX Composite | 35,155 | -0.23% |
| S&P 500 | 7,666 | +0.19% |
| WTI Crude (USD) | $93.07/bbl | +2.93% |
| Gold (USD) | $4,207.40/oz | +0.49% |
| Silver (USD) | $61.34/oz | +2.07% |
| USD/CAD | 1.4246 | — |
What to Watch Tomorrow
Friday, October 2 brings the most important data point of the week: Canada’s September Labour Force Survey and the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report, both releasing at 8:30 AM ET. A strong Canadian jobs print could push back Bank of Canada rate-cut expectations and pressure rate-sensitive equities further, while a weak number could reignite the loonie’s recent slide past 1.42. On the earnings front, no major TSX names are scheduled, but U.S. financial sector commentary from pre-market reporters will set tone. Overnight, watch for any OPEC+ statement follow-through — if producers formalize production cuts, WTI could test the US$95 level and give Canadian energy another lift heading into the weekend.
