Aluminum Surges 3.67% as China PMI Lifts Base Metals; Teck Slips

Aluminum led the base metals charge on October 6, 2026, with Alcoa Corp. — the clearest North American proxy for the metal — gaining 3.67% to close at $43.49 (approximately CAD $61.99 at the prevailing USD/CAD rate of 1.4253). The move tracked a broad rally across the London Metal Exchange (LME), where three-month aluminum futures climbed toward the $2,550 USD/tonne level, a threshold not tested since late spring. Tin and zinc also posted gains, confirming the rally was complex-wide rather than idiosyncratic to a single metal.

China PMI Sparks the Rally

The catalyst was China’s official National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Manufacturing PMI for September, which printed at 50.6 — its first expansion reading in six months and well ahead of the 49.8 consensus estimate. For aluminum, this is particularly significant: China consumes more than 60% of global primary aluminum output annually, with downstream demand concentrated in construction, automotive, and consumer electronics. A return to expansion territory signals that Chinese fabricators may be ready to rebuild raw-material inventories after months of cautious destocking.

LME aluminum warehouse stocks have been trending lower since August, falling roughly 18% over that period to sit near 480,000 tonnes — historically tight for this time of year. Shrinking on-warrant inventory combined with a demand-positive PMI print created the conditions for Tuesday’s sharp repricing. Copper, another China-sensitive metal, also advanced 0.58% to $6.6240/lb, reinforcing the broad risk-on tone in industrial commodities.

Canadian Angle: Teck Resources Diverges

Despite the macro tailwind, Teck Resources (TSX: TECK.B) fell 0.98% to $96.80 — an underperformance that stood out against the sector’s green board. Analysts attributed the dip to profit-taking following a strong September run and lingering investor uncertainty around Teck’s ongoing ramp-up at its QB2 copper operation in Chile, which has faced intermittent throughput challenges. Teck’s steelmaking coal segment, which accounts for a meaningful share of revenues, also faces softening met-coal spot prices that are dampening earnings-per-share forecasts heading into Q3 reporting season.

Still, Teck’s exposure to copper and zinc keeps it structurally tied to the same China demand cycle that lifted peers on Tuesday. Canada remains the world’s third-largest zinc producer and a top-ten aluminum producer, meaning a sustained Chinese recovery would flow through to Canadian miners and smelters with a short lag. Sherritt International, which operates nickel and cobalt assets in Cuba and has Canadian refining infrastructure, also stands to benefit if the base metals rally broadens into the battery-metals sub-complex.

What to Watch

Traders will be watching China’s Caixin Services PMI — due later this week — for confirmation that the manufacturing recovery is bleeding into the broader economy. On the supply side, Indonesian nickel policy remains a wildcard: Jakarta’s ore export restrictions have historically tightened global nickel supply, and any relaxation could weigh on nickel prices and, indirectly, sentiment across base metals. For Canadian investors, Teck’s Q3 earnings call — expected in late October — will be the next major data point for assessing whether QB2’s ramp-up is back on schedule and whether zinc margins can offset coal headwinds.