- TSX Composite gained 0.90% to close at 35,984, significantly outperforming a flat S&P 500 and a slightly lower Nasdaq on October 13.
- WTI crude surged 1.02% to US$94.70/bbl after EIA data showed a 4.2-million-barrel inventory draw, powering Canadian energy stocks higher.
- Silver dropped 1.16% to US$59.45/oz and gold slipped 0.11%, dragging precious-metals producers like Pan American Silver and Agnico Eagle lower on the day.
- U.S. CPI, major U.S. bank earnings, and China’s overnight trade balance are the three key catalysts to watch before Wednesday’s TSX open.
The TSX Composite closed at 35,984 on Tuesday, gaining 323 points or 0.90% on the session — one of the index’s stronger single-day performances in recent weeks. Volume was robust, running above the 30-day average as institutional buyers stepped in across energy and base-metals names. The contrast with Wall Street was stark: the S&P 500 slipped 0.02% to 7,805 and the Nasdaq shed 0.15% to 27,204, leaving Bay Street as the clear outperformer of the North American trading day.
Winners: Energy and Base Metals Do the Heavy Lifting
WTI crude oil jumped 1.02% to US$94.70 per barrel (approximately CAD$134.84 at the day’s USD/CAD rate of 1.4241), reigniting buying across Canada’s integrated and exploration producers. Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) and Cenovus Energy (CVE) were among the standout gainers in the energy patch, each tacking on more than 1.5% as traders priced in tighter-than-expected supply data out of the U.S. EIA inventory report. Suncor Energy also participated in the rally, closing up roughly 1.3% on heavier-than-average volume.
Copper added 0.44% to US$6.7280 per pound (CAD$9.58/lb), lending support to base-metals miners listed on the TSX and TSX-V. Teck Resources (TECK.B) and First Quantum Minerals (FM) both finished in the green, with Teck up approximately 1.8% — one of the index’s top individual performers on the day. The copper move was underpinned by fresh demand signals from Chinese manufacturing data released overnight, which showed a modest but meaningful uptick in industrial activity.
Losers: Precious Metals and Rate-Sensitive Names Drag
Gold slipped 0.11% to US$4,185.90 per ounce (CAD$5,960.76/oz), and silver fell a more meaningful 1.16% to US$59.45/oz (CAD$84.66/oz), weighing on senior and intermediate gold producers. Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) shed approximately 0.8% and Pan American Silver (PAAS) dropped close to 1.4%, reflecting silver’s sharper pullback. Analysts pointed to a mild firming of U.S. Treasury yields intraday as the catalyst, with the 10-year briefly touching 4.62% before pulling back — enough to pressure non-yielding metals.
Rate-sensitive sectors also underperformed. Canadian REITs and utilities lagged the broader index, with the S&P/TSX Capped REIT Index finishing down on the session as bond-proxy trades unwound. Brent crude’s 0.46% dip to US$106.16/bbl (CAD$151.11/bbl) created a modest divergence with WTI, reflecting regional supply dynamics rather than a demand concern — a nuance worth watching as the spread widens.
The Story Behind the Numbers
The day’s dominant narrative was the U.S. EIA weekly petroleum inventory report, which showed a draw of approximately 4.2 million barrels — well above the consensus estimate of 1.8 million. That single data point lit a fire under WTI and cascaded into Canadian energy equities within minutes of the 10:30 AM ET release. Simultaneously, the Bank of Canada’s Senior Loan Officer Survey, released this morning, showed a slight easing in credit conditions for businesses — a mild positive for small-cap and growth names on the TSX-V, which ticked higher as a result.
What to Watch Tomorrow, October 14
Three catalysts deserve your attention before the open. First, U.S. CPI data for September drops at 8:30 AM ET — consensus sits at a 2.4% year-over-year headline print, and any surprise in either direction will move rate expectations and the USD/CAD immediately. Second, several major U.S. bank earnings are on deck pre-market, including results from JPMorgan Chase; a strong print could lift sentiment broadly and provide a tailwind for Canadian financials. Third, overnight watch: China’s trade balance figures are due, and given today’s copper move on manufacturing data, any export surprise will flow directly into base-metals names at the TSX open. Set your alerts.
