- Silver dropped 3.85% to US$55.21/oz (C$77.50), its steepest single-session loss in months, driven by a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobless claims print.
- A surging U.S. dollar index and hawkish Fed rate fears triggered broad precious metals selling, with gold also sliding 1.95% to US$4,069.10/oz.
- TSX-listed First Majestic Silver (AG) and Pan American Silver (PAAS) fell 4.2% and 3.6% respectively, with TSX-V junior Impact Silver (IPT) losing 5.1% intraday.
- Scotiabank and National Bank Financial maintain bullish price targets, while BMO notes a stretched 73x gold-to-silver ratio historically precedes silver outperformance.
Silver fell US$2.21 to US$55.21 per ounce (C$77.50 at today’s USD/CAD rate of 1.4034) by midday Thursday, marking the metal’s worst single-session percentage decline in months at –3.85%. Gold dropped alongside it, shedding 1.95% to US$4,069.10/oz (C$5,710.46), but it was silver’s steeper drop that rattled Canadian mining investors most acutely. The dual selloff signals a broad risk-off rotation rather than a commodity-specific event.
What’s Driving the Selloff
The catalyst was a hotter-than-anticipated U.S. jobless claims print released this morning, with initial claims falling to 178,000 — well below the 215,000 consensus — reigniting fears that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates at restrictive levels through at least Q1 2027. A firmer U.S. dollar index (DXY) surged 0.7% on the news, applying direct downward pressure on dollar-denominated commodities. Silver, which carries a larger industrial demand component than gold, was hit doubly hard as copper’s concurrent 2.10% decline reinforced concerns about slowing global manufacturing activity.
Technically, silver broke below the widely-watched US$56.00 support level — a floor that had held for six consecutive sessions — triggering a wave of algorithmic stop-loss selling. The next key support sits at US$53.40, a level corresponding to silver’s 50-day moving average. A breach there could invite further institutional de-risking heading into the weekend.
TSX & TSX-V Names in the Crosshairs
First Majestic Silver (TSX: AG) bore the brunt of the selloff among senior producers, falling an estimated 4.2% in early Toronto trading. The company, which operates three primary silver mines in Mexico, derives the majority of its revenue from silver and carries direct spot-price leverage. Pan American Silver (TSX: PAAS), the sector’s largest Canadian-listed pure-play, dropped approximately 3.6%, extending its pullback from a 52-week high set just two weeks ago. On the venture side, Endeavour Silver (TSX: EDR) and junior explorer Impact Silver (TSX-V: IPT) also logged steep intraday losses of 4.8% and 5.1% respectively, consistent with the amplified volatility typical of smaller-cap silver equities.
Analyst Calls & Price Targets
Despite today’s turbulence, several research desks remain constructive on silver’s medium-term outlook. Scotiabank’s metals team reiterated a C$28.00 price target on First Majestic Silver earlier this month, citing structural industrial demand from solar panel manufacturing as a multi-year tailwind. National Bank Financial maintained its Outperform rating on Pan American Silver with a C$42.50 target, arguing that the company’s diversified asset base insulates it from single-jurisdiction risk. BMO Capital Markets, meanwhile, published a sector note on October 15 flagging that silver’s gold-to-silver ratio — currently stretched above 73x — historically precedes a mean-reversion rally that favours silver outperformance over a 6–12 month horizon.
| Commodity / Ticker | Price (USD) | Price (CAD) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Silver Spot | $55.21/oz | $77.50/oz | –3.85% |
| Gold Spot | $4,069.10/oz | $5,710.46/oz | –1.95% |
| First Majestic (AG) | — | ~–4.2% intraday | Scotiabank target: C$28.00 |
| Pan American (PAAS) | — | ~–3.6% intraday | NBF target: C$42.50 |
Retail investors should note that today’s move does not alter the structural bull case for silver — solar and EV battery demand forecasts remain intact — but the macro rate environment can override fundamentals in the short term. Positions sized appropriately for volatility remain key in this sector.
