Key Takeaways
- S&P 500 Q3 earnings growth consensus sits at 8.2% year-over-year, up from 7.1% in Q2.
- Technology and AI infrastructure companies are expected to post the strongest beats.
- Energy sector earnings face headwinds with WTI averaging $76 vs. $88 in Q3 2025.
- Canadian companies with U.S. revenue exposure stand to benefit from USD strength.
Q3 earnings season kicks off in mid-July with the big U.S. banks, and analysts are entering the cycle with measured optimism. The S&P 500 blended earnings growth estimate for Q3 stands at 8.2% year-over-year according to FactSet, a modest acceleration from the 7.1% growth posted in Q2.
Sector-by-Sector Breakdown
| Sector | Q3 EPS Growth Est. | Q2 Actual | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | +14.8% | +12.2% | AI capex, cloud |
| Healthcare | +10.2% | +8.8% | GLP-1 drugs |
| Financials | +9.4% | +11.1% | NIM stabilization |
| Consumer Discretionary | +6.8% | +5.2% | Resilient spending |
| Energy | -4.2% | -2.8% | Lower oil prices |
| Materials | +11.6% | +9.4% | Gold, copper prices |
What This Means for Canadian Investors
For TSX investors, the S&P 500 earnings cycle matters because roughly 40% of TSX-listed company revenues derive from U.S. operations or are priced in USD. A strong U.S. earnings season tends to lift risk appetite globally, benefiting Canadian small- and mid-cap stocks that often trade at a discount to their U.S. peers.
The materials sector is the most directly relevant. With gold above $3,300 and copper near $4.80/lb, Canadian miners listed on the TSX are set to report significantly improved margins in Q3. Analysts at TD Securities are modelling 18–24% EBITDA margin expansion for intermediate gold producers.
Key Dates to Watch
The reporting season opens July 15 with JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Citigroup. Technology heavyweights Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta are expected the week of July 28. For Canadian investors, the key domestic Q2 report dates are Royal Bank (August 27), TD (August 29), and Shopify (August 12).