Key Takeaways
- Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) cut 2026 copper production guidance by 80,000 tonnes to 4.1M tonnes.
- The cut was due to lower ore grades at Grasberg (Indonesia) a temporary issue, not structural.
- Net cash cost guidance held at $1.40/lb implying $3.42/lb margin at current $4.82 copper prices.
- FCX shares fell 4% on the news but recovered; Canadian copper stocks were broadly unaffected.
Freeport-McMoRan, the world’s largest publicly traded copper miner, trimmed its 2026 production guidance by 80,000 tonnes last Friday, citing lower-than-expected ore grades at its flagship Grasberg operation in Indonesia. The announcement initially sent FCX shares down 4%, but the stock recovered most of its losses as investors focused on the unchanged cost guidance and robust margin picture.
Revised Guidance Summary
| Metric | Previous Guidance | Revised Guidance | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Copper Production (tonnes) | 4.18M | 4.10M | -80,000t |
| Gold Production (koz) | 1,600 | 1,520 | -80koz |
| Net Cash Cost ($/lb Cu) | $1.42 | $1.40 | -$0.02 |
| Capex ($B) | $5.0 | $5.0 | Unchanged |
The Bigger Picture
Freeport’s guidance cut is worth contextualizing: even with the reduction, the company will produce 4.1 million tonnes of copper in 2026 roughly 17% of global mined supply. A production miss of 80,000 tonnes at the world’s largest producer directly tightens an already-deficited market, which is ultimately constructive for copper prices.
For Canadian investors with Teck Resources (TECK.B.TO) exposure, Freeport’s update is indirectly positive. Teck’s QB2 mine in Chile produced 271,000 tonnes in 2025 and is ramping toward 285,000 tonnes in 2026. With copper at $4.82/lb and AISC below $2.20/lb, the margin environment for Canadian copper producers is the best in a decade.