Key Takeaways
- Gold is holding above $3,300/oz despite USD strength, underpinned by record central bank demand.
- Central banks bought 487 tonnes in H1 2026 on track to beat the 2025 record of 1,040 tonnes.
- China, India, and Poland are the top three central bank buyers in 2026.
- Gold ETF holdings have also recovered, with global ETF AUM up 18% year-to-date.
Gold’s resilience above $3,300 per ounce in the face of a strengthening U.S. dollar and rising real yields is drawing attention from analysts who expected more weakness. The explanation lies in an unprecedented structural bid: central banks are buying gold at a pace not seen since the 1960s.
The Central Bank Bid
The World Gold Council reported that central banks purchased 487 tonnes of gold in H1 2026, putting the full-year total on track to exceed the 2025 record of 1,040 tonnes. The buying is geographically diverse but concentrated: China’s People’s Bank added 84 tonnes, India’s RBI 62 tonnes, and Poland’s NBP 48 tonnes in H1 alone.
| Central Bank | H1 2026 Purchases (tonnes) | Total Reserves |
|---|---|---|
| People’s Bank of China | 84t | 2,262t |
| Reserve Bank of India | 62t | 841t |
| National Bank of Poland | 48t | 420t |
| Central Bank of Turkey | 38t | 612t |
| Qatar Central Bank | 24t | 98t |
The De-Dollarization Driver
The structural motivation behind central bank buying is well-documented: a desire to reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar system following the 2022 freezing of Russian central bank assets. That episode which saw $300B in sovereign assets frozen overnight accelerated a diversification trend that was already underway. Gold, which cannot be sanctioned, has become the reserve asset of choice for countries seeking political optionality.
For Canadian gold miners, this demand backdrop is structurally supportive. With all-in sustaining costs (AISC) for major Canadian producers averaging $1,280–$1,420 per ounce, margins at $3,300 gold are historically wide. Agnico Eagle, the largest pure-play gold miner on the TSX, reported Q1 AISC of $1,298/oz implying margins above $2,000/oz at current prices.