- Vale SA, a key nickel benchmark proxy, surged 3.08% to $15.04 USD ($20.83 CAD) on August 25, 2026, leading base metals gains.
- Indonesia’s tightened nickel ore export restrictions are squeezing global supply, with LME nickel inventories falling to roughly 38,400 tonnes.
- Sherritt International’s Moa Joint Venture stands to benefit materially if LME nickel prices sustain above $17,000 per tonne.
- China’s August manufacturing PMI of 50.4 and an 18% year-over-year rise in EV battery output are supporting base metals demand sentiment.
Nickel’s proxy benchmark surged 3.08% on Tuesday, with Vale SA — the world’s largest nickel producer and a widely tracked barometer for the metal — closing at $15.04 (USD) as renewed Indonesian export policy tightened the screws on global refined nickel supply. At the prevailing USD/CAD rate of 1.3849, that translates to approximately $20.83 CAD per share. The move outpaced broader base metals gains on the day, where copper added a more modest 0.58% to $6.6370/lb.
Indonesia’s Export Curbs: The Flashpoint
Jakarta confirmed this week that it is extending and tightening restrictions on unprocessed nickel ore exports, a policy first introduced in 2020 that has since reshaped global supply chains. Indonesia controls roughly 40% of the world’s mined nickel supply, and any escalation of its downstream-processing mandate sends shockwaves through London Metal Exchange (LME) pricing. The latest measures require a higher percentage of ore to be refined domestically before export, effectively choking off raw material flows to Chinese smelters that have historically relied on Indonesian feedstock.
LME nickel inventories have fallen to approximately 38,400 tonnes as of August 25 — a level not seen since early Q1 2026 — amplifying the price response to any supply-side news. When warehouse stocks are thin, even modest policy shifts can trigger outsized moves. Traders on the LME pushed the three-month nickel contract toward the $17,200/tonne mark intraday before settling slightly lower.
Canadian Angle: Sherritt International in Focus
For Canadian investors, Sherritt International (TSX: S) is the name most directly exposed to nickel price swings outside of Teck Resources’ diversified base metals book. Sherritt operates the Moa Joint Venture in Cuba — one of the Western Hemisphere’s most significant laterite nickel-cobalt operations — and its realized nickel prices track LME benchmarks closely. A sustained move above $17,000/tonne on the LME would meaningfully improve Sherritt’s per-unit economics, given the company’s all-in sustaining costs hovering near $14,500/tonne in its most recent quarterly filing.
Teck Resources (TSX: TECK.B), while primarily a copper and steelmaking coal giant, also holds base metals exposure that benefits from a broadly stronger nickel complex lifting sentiment across the sector. Teck did not trade cleanly today — data was unavailable at press time — but the company’s QB2 copper ramp and exploration pipeline keep it central to any Canadian base metals conversation.
China Demand and the Macro Backdrop
China’s official manufacturing PMI for August, released earlier this month, printed at 50.4 — just above the expansion threshold and the highest reading since February 2026. That marginal improvement in Chinese factory activity is providing a floor under base metals broadly, even as the country’s property sector remains a structural drag on steel and, by extension, stainless steel-grade nickel demand. The EV battery segment is increasingly picking up the slack: lithium iron phosphate (LFP) and nickel manganese cobalt (NMC) cathode production in China rose 18% year-over-year in July, according to the China Automotive Battery Innovation Alliance.
| Asset | Price (USD) | Price (CAD) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vale SA (Nickel Proxy) | $15.04 | $20.83 | +3.08% |
| Copper (LME) | $6.6370/lb | $9.19/lb | +0.58% |
| Alcoa (Aluminum Proxy) | $49.39 | $68.41 | -4.74% |
| USD/CAD | — | 1.3849 | — |
Aluminum was the notable laggard in the base metals complex today, with Alcoa dropping 4.74% to $49.39 USD ($68.41 CAD) amid concerns over surplus smelter capacity in China and softer-than-expected aerospace order data from the U.S. The divergence between nickel’s supply-squeeze rally and aluminum’s demand-driven selloff underscores how idiosyncratic individual metal stories have become in the current macro environment.
