NVIDIA Slides 1.47% But the Semiconductor Upcycle Thesis Remains Intact

NVIDIA (NVDA) fell $3.37 to $225.51 on September 24, 2026 — a decline of 1.47% — dragging the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) down 1.00% to $601.41. AMD tracked in lockstep, shedding 1.47% to close at $614.61. The synchronized selloff was driven by profit-taking after a multi-week run, not by any fundamental deterioration. For Canadian investors watching from the sidelines, this kind of orderly pullback inside a structural upcycle has historically been an entry point, not an exit.

Where Are We in the Semiconductor Cycle?

The semiconductor industry moves in well-documented supercycles, typically four to five years from trough to peak. The last major trough arrived in late 2022 and early 2023, when memory prices collapsed and consumer electronics demand cratered post-pandemic. Since then, artificial intelligence infrastructure has catalyzed what analysts at TSMC and major sell-side desks have characterized as the most capital-intensive upcycle in the industry’s history. TSMC’s CoWoS advanced packaging capacity — the technology that stacks NVIDIA’s high-bandwidth memory onto its H100 and Blackwell GPU dies — remains the single biggest bottleneck in the AI supply chain. TSMC has indicated capacity expansions through 2026 and 2027 still cannot fully satisfy hyperscaler demand from Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta.

NVIDIA’s data center revenue has compounded at extraordinary rates over the trailing eight quarters. Even at $225.51 per share, the stock trades at a forward earnings multiple that, while elevated by historical standards, is supported by a backlog pipeline that extends well into fiscal 2027. AMD’s $614.61 close — making it a higher nominal share price than NVDA — reflects the market’s growing confidence that its MI300X and next-generation Instinct accelerators are carving a credible second-supplier position inside hyperscaler data centers.

US-China Export Controls: Risk and Opportunity

The geopolitical dimension of semiconductors cannot be ignored. The U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security has progressively tightened export controls on advanced AI chips destined for China, restricting NVIDIA’s ability to sell its most capable GPUs into one of the world’s largest markets. The CHIPS and Science Act, now in its fourth year of implementation, has directed over US$52 billion in subsidies toward domestic U.S. fabrication — with TSMC’s Arizona fabs and Intel’s Ohio expansion as flagship projects. Separately, discussions around a potential TSMC Canada facility, reported by multiple sources in 2025, would represent a significant strategic development for Canadian industrial policy if formalized, potentially anchoring a North American semiconductor corridor that reduces reliance on Taiwan Strait logistics risk.

Export controls cut both ways. They constrain NVIDIA’s China addressable market, shaving an estimated 20–25% from its total serviceable opportunity. But they also accelerate onshoring investment across the U.S., Canada, and allied nations — a structural tailwind for domestic chip infrastructure spending that benefits equipment makers, materials suppliers, and the ETFs that hold them.

How Canadian Investors Can Get Exposure

Canadian retail investors have several practical routes into the semiconductor trade. The most liquid is SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF), which closed at US$601.41 — equivalent to approximately C$847.23 at the prevailing USD/CAD rate of 1.4089. SMH holds NVIDIA, TSMC ADRs, AMD, Broadcom, and ASML as top positions, offering diversified cycle exposure in a single ticker available on U.S. exchanges through any Canadian brokerage with international trading access. The iShares SOXX ETF is a comparable alternative with slightly different index construction.

For those preferring direct equity exposure, NVDA shares at US$225.51 (C$317.79) and AMD at US$614.61 (C$865.93) are accessible through TFSA and RRSP accounts at most major Canadian brokerages, though U.S. withholding tax considerations apply in TFSAs. Investors seeking TSX-listed technology proxies may find limited direct semiconductor exposure, but Constellation Software (CSU) at C$2,785.32 and broader Canadian tech ETFs provide adjacent technology sector participation.

Today’s pullback is noise inside a signal. The semiconductor upcycle — anchored by AI data center buildout, constrained leading-edge capacity at TSMC, and a U.S.-led onshoring policy regime — has years of structural momentum remaining. Canadian investors who treat dips in SMH or NVDA as volatility rather than trend reversal are better positioned to capture the next leg higher.