- Silver plunged 4.45% to $61.38/oz USD ($86.97 CAD), its worst single-session drop of 2026, while gold fell 3.89% simultaneously.
- A blowout U.S. jobs print of 284,000 forced fed funds futures to price out two rate cuts, spiking real yields and crushing precious metals demand.
- TSX-listed First Majestic Silver (AG) and Pan American Silver (PAAS) fell an estimated 7.2% and 5.8% respectively, amplifying the underlying metal moves.
- Scotiabank and BMO hold Outperform ratings on PAAS and AEM with CAD targets of $38.00 and $130.00, framing today’s dip as a potential entry point.
Silver and Gold Post Brutal Session as Rate Expectations Whipsaw Markets
Silver collapsed 4.45% to $61.38/oz (USD) — approximately $86.97/oz CAD at today’s USD/CAD rate of 1.4166 — making it the single largest commodity loser on global markets on September 28, 2026. Gold was not far behind, sliding 3.89% to $4,153.00/oz USD ($5,881.75 CAD), in what analysts are calling the sharpest one-day precious metals selloff this year. The simultaneous drop across both metals points to a macro-driven liquidation event rather than any commodity-specific supply shock.
The Driver: A Blowout U.S. Jobs Print Forces Fed Repricing
The catalyst was a stronger-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls revision for August 2026, released this morning, which showed 284,000 jobs added versus the 195,000 consensus estimate. The print immediately crushed rate-cut expectations, with fed funds futures now pricing just one 25-basis-point cut before year-end, down from three cuts priced in as recently as last week. The U.S. dollar index surged 1.3% on the data, a direct headwind for dollar-denominated metals. Real yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries spiked to 2.41%, their highest level since April, further eroding the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold and silver.
Silver’s steeper decline relative to gold — widening the gold/silver ratio back above 67x — reflects the metal’s dual identity: it is both a monetary hedge and an industrial input. With copper also down 1.09% today, traders are interpreting the jobs surprise as a sign that the global manufacturing rebound may be losing steam, pressuring silver’s industrial demand narrative simultaneously.
TSX and TSX-V Names in the Crossfire
The carnage was broad across Canadian-listed precious metals equities. First Majestic Silver (TSX: AG), one of the TSX’s most silver-levered producers, fell an estimated 7.2% intraday, amplifying the underlying metal’s move as is typical for high-beta silver miners. Pan American Silver (TSX: PAAS), which carries significant silver streaming revenue, dropped approximately 5.8%, dragging its year-to-date gain back below 30%. On the gold side, Kinross Gold (TSX: K) shed roughly 4.9%, while senior producer Agnico Eagle Mines (TSX: AEM) declined 4.1%, both tracking closely with spot gold’s drawdown.
Analyst Targets and Research Calls
Despite today’s selloff, several major desks have maintained or recently raised their price targets on key names. Scotiabank reiterated its Outperform rating on Pan American Silver last week with a 12-month target of $38.00 CAD, citing the company’s low all-in sustaining cost (AISC) profile as a buffer during volatility. BMO Capital Markets holds a $130.00 CAD target on Agnico Eagle, noting that any pullback toward the $105–$110 range represents a “high-conviction accumulation zone” given AEM’s Tier-1 asset base in Nunavut and Quebec. Meanwhile, TD Securities revised its silver price deck upward to an average of $58.00/oz USD for full-year 2026 just two weeks ago — a call that now looks optimistic given today’s move, though the desk has not yet issued a revision.
| Commodity / Stock | Price (USD) | Price (CAD) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Silver (spot) | $61.38/oz | $86.97/oz | -4.45% |
| Gold (spot) | $4,153.00/oz | $5,881.75/oz | -3.89% |
| First Majestic Silver (AG) | — | TSX-listed | ~-7.2% |
| Pan American Silver (PAAS) | — | TSX-listed | ~-5.8% |
| Agnico Eagle (AEM) | — | TSX-listed | ~-4.1% |
What to Watch Into the Close
Traders will be watching the $60.00/oz USD level in silver — a psychologically significant threshold and a zone of prior technical support established in late July. A breach on a closing basis could open the door to a further slide toward the $57.50–$58.00 range. For gold, the $4,100/oz level is the next key support; a hold there would likely stabilize sentiment heading into next week’s U.S. PCE inflation data, which could either reinforce or challenge today’s hawkish repricing. Canadian investors holding unhedged precious metals ETFs should note that the CAD’s modest weakening today — USD/CAD at 1.4166 — provided only a marginal cushion against the spot metal declines.
