Key Takeaways
- Suncor (SU.TO) generated $3.8B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months.
- The company has repurchased 38% of its outstanding shares since 2021 a remarkable capital return record.
- Quarterly dividend was raised 3.6% in Q1, now yielding 4.2% at current prices.
- Fort Hills oil sands mine running at 92% capacity highest since acquisition.
Suncor Energy has quietly become one of Canada’s most compelling capital return stories. With WTI oil holding above $75, Fort Hills running near capacity, and a leaner cost structure following its operational overhaul, the company is generating free cash flow at a pace that rivals any company on the TSX on an absolute dollar basis.
The Free Cash Flow Machine
| Metric | TTM | FY2025 | FY2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($B) | $52.4 | $48.8 | $51.2 |
| Operating Cash Flow ($B) | $8.6 | $7.8 | $8.1 |
| Capex ($B) | $4.8 | $4.6 | $4.9 |
| Free Cash Flow ($B) | $3.8 | $3.2 | $3.2 |
| Dividends Paid ($B) | $1.2 | $1.1 | $0.9 |
| Buybacks ($B) | $2.6 | $2.4 | $2.8 |
The Buyback Story
Suncor’s share count has fallen from 1.48 billion in 2021 to approximately 930 million today a 37% reduction in just five years. For remaining shareholders, this has been enormously value-accretive: each remaining share now represents a meaningfully larger claim on the company’s assets and earnings. With the current NCIB authorizing the repurchase of a further 100M shares, the buyback program is expected to continue through 2027.