- The TSX Composite fell 144 points (0.39%) to 36,814, dragged lower by a 2.27% collapse in Brent crude to US$86.57 per barrel.
- Energy was the day’s worst sector: CNQ lost 1.8%, CVE dropped 2.1%, and MEG Energy was the hardest hit large-cap, falling 2.6%.
- Gold miners outperformed as bullion held at US$4,649.20/oz; Agnico Eagle gained 1.4% and Kinross Gold rose 1.7% on the session.
- Thursday’s U.S. core PCE inflation print at 8:30 AM ET and Dollarama’s Q2 earnings are the key catalysts to watch before markets open.
The TSX Composite closed at 36,814 on Wednesday, down 144 points or 0.39%, underperforming a nearly flat Wall Street session where the S&P 500 dipped just 0.02% to 7,676 and the NASDAQ edged 0.08% lower to 26,130. Volume on the TSX came in modestly below the 30-day average, signalling a lack of conviction from buyers rather than a decisive sell-off. The loonie held steady against a firm U.S. dollar, with USD/CAD at 1.3862.
Energy Leads the Losers
Energy was the day’s clear underperformer, dragged lower by a punishing 2.27% drop in Brent crude to US$86.57 per barrel (approximately C$120.03) and a 0.53% decline in WTI to US$81.92 (C$113.60). Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) fell 1.8% to close at C$54.12, erasing gains built earlier in the week, while Cenovus Energy (CVE) shed 2.1% to C$22.87, its weakest close in three weeks. The Brent selloff was attributed to renewed concerns over demand softness out of Europe following weaker-than-expected German industrial output data released overnight. Integrated oil producers with North Sea exposure bore the brunt of the repricing.
MEG Energy (MEG) was the session’s worst large-cap performer, dropping 2.6% to C$28.44, as traders rotated out of oil-leverage names ahead of the long weekend. Base metals provided little relief: copper slipped 0.10% to US$6.7025/lb, keeping names like Teck Resources (TECK.B) flat to slightly negative on the day.
Gold Miners Shine as Bullion Holds Near Record
With gold up 0.24% to US$4,649.20 per ounce (C$6,447.43 at current rates), the materials sector was the lone index winner. Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) gained 1.4% to C$138.60, extending its year-to-date outperformance as the stock continues to track gold’s relentless climb. Kinross Gold (K) advanced 1.7% to C$24.15, buoyed by analyst commentary suggesting the producer’s all-in sustaining costs remain well below the spot price, widening margins. Silver’s 0.77% decline to US$68.11/oz (C$94.43) weighed on silver-heavy names like First Majestic Silver (FR), which closed down 0.9%.
| Asset | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| TSX Composite | 36,814 | -0.39% |
| S&P 500 | 7,676 | -0.02% |
| Gold (USD/oz) | $4,649.20 | +0.24% |
| WTI Crude (USD/bbl) | $81.92 | -0.53% |
| Brent (USD/bbl) | $86.57 | -2.27% |
| USD/CAD | 1.3862 | — |
What’s Driving the Tape
The primary catalyst for Wednesday’s energy-led weakness was the Brent crude collapse, which market participants tied to a combination of European demand worries and reports that OPEC+ compliance among smaller members is slipping. Separately, the flat U.S. equity session reflects investor caution ahead of Thursday’s U.S. core PCE inflation print — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge — which could materially shift rate-cut expectations for September. Canadian investors are watching the same release closely, given the Bank of Canada’s stated sensitivity to Fed policy divergence.
Tomorrow’s Watchlist
The single most important data point on Thursday is the U.S. core PCE index for July, due at 8:30 AM ET. A reading above the consensus estimate of 2.6% year-over-year could dent rate-cut bets and weigh on rate-sensitive TSX sectors including utilities and REITs. On the earnings front, Dollarama (DOL) reports Q2 results before the open — the discount retailer has been one of the TSX’s most resilient consumer names and guidance on same-store sales growth will be closely watched. Overnight, keep an eye on any OPEC+ commentary out of Vienna, which could set the tone for energy names at Friday’s open. Gold traders will monitor the U.S. dollar index reaction to PCE; a softer print could push bullion toward the US$4,700 milestone.
