- The TSX Composite fell 149 points or 0.42% at the open, weighed down by a sharp 1.66% decline in WTI crude oil to $89.60 USD per barrel.
- Silver surged 2.87% to $61.70 USD per ounce and copper rose 1.99%, lifting TSX-listed metals and mining stocks against the broader market’s negative trend.
- The NASDAQ outperformed with a 0.63% gain to 27,363, driven by AI and semiconductor momentum following a weekend analyst sector upgrade.
- Energy is the clear early laggard on both the TSX and S&P 500, linked to weekend OPEC+ reports raising concerns about potential production cap adjustments in Q4.
The TSX Composite opened down 149 points, or 0.42%, to 35,355 as of 9:45 AM ET Monday, diverging meaningfully from a modestly positive Wall Street open. The S&P 500 added 12 points, or 0.16%, to 7,735, while the NASDAQ led early gains with a 172-point advance, or 0.63%, to 27,363. The split open reflects two competing overnight forces: falling crude oil prices hammering Canada’s energy-heavy index, and a metals rally giving U.S. industrial and tech names a lift.
Energy Drags the TSX; Crude Slides Nearly 2%
The single biggest headwind on Bay Street this morning is oil. WTI crude is off $1.51 a barrel, or 1.66%, to $89.60 USD ($127.59 CAD at the current 1.4240 rate), while Brent is softer by 0.60% to $101.64 USD ($144.73 CAD). Energy is the TSX’s largest sector weighting, and producers including major oil-sands names are seeing outsized selling pressure in early trade. Volume in the energy sub-index is running above the 30-day average in the first quarter-hour — a sign institutional sellers, not just retail noise, are repositioning. The catalyst appears to be weekend reports of a surprise OPEC+ output compliance review, which raised expectations that some member nations may quietly lift production caps heading into Q4.
Metals and Miners Flash Green — a Split Story on the TSX
Not everything on the TSX is red. Silver is surging 2.87% to $61.70 USD ($87.86 CAD) per ounce, its sharpest single-session move in over three weeks, and copper is up a strong 1.99% to $6.6210 USD ($9.43 CAD) per pound. Gold is steadier, adding 0.34% to $4,176.60 USD ($5,947.47 CAD) per ounce. TSX-listed precious and base metals miners are among the few sectors trading in the green at the open, with silver royalty plays and copper developers showing notable gap-up moves on elevated volume. The metals rally is being tied to overnight data out of China showing stronger-than-expected manufacturing activity, stoking demand optimism for industrial commodities.
U.S. Side: NASDAQ Leads on Tech Momentum
On Wall Street, the NASDAQ’s 0.63% advance is the standout, driven by continued momentum in AI-linked semiconductor names after a weekend analyst note from a major U.S. investment bank upgraded the sector’s 12-month outlook. The S&P 500’s modest 0.16% gain reflects a tug-of-war: energy and consumer staples are lagging, while technology, materials, and industrials lead in the early tape. The USD/CAD rate is holding at 1.4240, providing a small but meaningful earnings translation tailwind for Canadian companies with U.S.-dollar revenue streams.
Early Scorecard: Sectors to Watch
| Sector / Asset | Direction | Key Move |
|---|---|---|
| TSX Energy | 🔴 Lagging | WTI –1.66% to $89.60 USD |
| TSX Metals & Mining | 🟢 Leading | Silver +2.87%, Copper +1.99% |
| TSX Gold | 🟢 Modest Gain | Gold +0.34% to $4,176.60 USD |
| NASDAQ / U.S. Tech | 🟢 Leading | NASDAQ +0.63% to 27,363 |
| S&P 500 Energy | 🔴 Lagging | Brent –0.60% to $101.64 USD |
With only the first 15 minutes in the books, the key watch items for the rest of the session are whether crude oil finds support at the $89 USD handle, and whether the silver and copper rally has staying power or fades as North American traders fully engage. Any further deterioration in WTI below $89 USD could steepen TSX losses heading into the midday session, while a confirmed hold in metals would keep Canadian mining names as the market’s unlikely bright spot on an otherwise cautious Monday open.
