- Copper surged 1.66% overnight to $6.60/lb, the strongest commodity move of the morning and a direct tailwind for TSX-listed base metal miners including Teck and Ivanhoe.
- Gold is holding above $4,185 USD/oz ($5,960 CAD), with silver up 3.34% signalling broad precious metals strength ahead of the North American open.
- The TSX Composite sits at 35,503 with futures pointing higher; a clean break above 35,600 today would mark a fresh year-to-date high for the index.
- U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls for September drop at 8:30 a.m. ET and will dictate the session’s direction — consensus sits at ~155,000 jobs added.
The single biggest story heading into Monday’s open is copper. The red metal surged 1.66% overnight to $6.60/lb, its sharpest single-session move in weeks, driven by renewed optimism around Chinese industrial demand and tightening global supply signals out of Chile. For TSX-listed miners — including Teck Resources (TECK.B) and Ivanhoe Mines (IVN) — that is a meaningful tailwind heading into the session. Watch the TSX Materials sub-index closely at the open.
TSX Composite: Momentum Builds Above 35,500
The TSX Composite closed Friday’s session at 35,503, up 0.99% — and overnight futures suggest the index can extend that run. A broad risk-on bid is supporting equities across North America, with the S&P 500 at 7,723 (+0.73%) and the NASDAQ at 27,191 (+1.19%). The Canadian dollar is trading at 1.4240 USD/CAD, meaning commodity revenues denominated in U.S. dollars continue to translate favourably for domestic producers. A sustained break above 35,600 on the TSX today would put the index at fresh year-to-date highs.
Gold Holds Historic Ground Above $4,185 USD ($5,960 CAD)
Gold is trading at $4,185.60/oz USD — approximately $5,960/oz in Canadian dollars at the current 1.4240 exchange rate — up 0.56% overnight. The metal continues to benefit from persistent central bank buying, elevated geopolitical risk premiums, and a slightly softer U.S. dollar index heading into today’s Non-Farm Payrolls print. Canadian senior gold producers like Agnico Eagle (AEM) and Barrick Gold (ABX) are positioned to gap higher at the open if gold holds these levels. Silver is the more aggressive move this morning, up 3.34% to $61.98/oz — a signal that speculative money is rotating into precious metals with conviction.
Oil Picture Is Mixed — Brent Strong, WTI Slips
Brent crude climbed 0.54% to $102.80/bbl, while WTI dipped modestly to $90.88/bbl (-0.25%), leaving a wide $11.92 spread between the two benchmarks. The divergence reflects continued logistical tightness in Atlantic Basin supply versus softer near-term U.S. demand expectations ahead of today’s macro data. For Canadian energy names — particularly oil sands producers like Suncor Energy (SU) and Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) — Brent’s strength matters more, as Western Canadian Select (WCS) pricing tends to track global benchmarks. Energy remains a key weight in the TSX; any sustained move in Brent above $103 could be a catalyst for the broader index.
What to Watch Today: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls
The dominant scheduled event this Monday is the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report for September 2026, due at 8:30 a.m. ET — before the TSX opens. Consensus expectations sit around 155,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate forecast steady at 4.2%. A hot print (above ~185,000) could reignite Federal Reserve rate-hold expectations, pressure rate-sensitive growth names on the TSX, and temporarily cap gold’s advance. A soft print below 120,000, conversely, would likely accelerate the risk-on rally already building in overnight markets. This number will set the tone for the entire trading session.
| Asset | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| TSX Composite | 35,503 | +0.99% |
| S&P 500 | 7,723 | +0.73% |
| NASDAQ | 27,191 | +1.19% |
| Gold (USD/oz) | $4,185.60 | +0.56% |
| Silver (USD/oz) | $61.98 | +3.34% |
| WTI Crude (USD/bbl) | $90.88 | -0.25% |
| Brent (USD/bbl) | $102.80 | +0.54% |
| Copper (USD/lb) | $6.60 | +1.66% |
| USD/CAD | 1.4240 | — |
