TSX Holds Near Flat While S&P 500 Slides 0.39% at Thursday Open

9:45 AM ET — The TSX Composite opened Thursday nearly unchanged at 35,734, down just 0.05%, while the S&P 500 dropped 30 points to 7,676 (-0.39%) in the first 15 minutes of trade. The NASDAQ led losses south of the border, shedding 167 points or 0.62% to 26,768, as a broad risk-off tone in U.S. tech spilled over from overnight sessions in Asia and Europe. Canada’s relative resilience is being driven by commodity strength, not equity conviction — a key distinction for traders watching sector rotation this morning.

Energy Leads the TSX; Materials Hold Steady

The standout early mover is the TSX Energy sector, tracking a sharp overnight rally in WTI crude, which is up 2.15% to $94.14 per barrel — its strongest intraday move in three weeks. That brings WTI within striking distance of the psychologically significant $95 level. Canadian oil sands producers and pipeline names are seeing outsized early volume as a result. Brent crude, however, tells a different story: it slipped 3.04% to $99.95/bbl, an unusually wide spread versus WTI that reflects regional supply dynamics and warrants close monitoring through the session.

The TSX Materials sector is holding flat-to-slightly-positive, supported by copper’s 1.19% gain to $6.7575/lb — a move attributed to tighter inventory data out of the London Metal Exchange overnight and renewed demand signals from Chinese infrastructure spending data. Base metal miners listed on the TSX and TSX-V are seeing modest early bids. Gold, however, is not providing the usual safe-haven lift: spot gold slipped 0.25% to $4,307.70/oz (approximately C$6,065/oz at 1.4089 USD/CAD), suggesting institutional flows are not rotating defensively into precious metals at the open.

Tech and Discretionary Lag; NASDAQ Weakness Bleeds North

Canadian technology names are under pressure in sympathy with the NASDAQ’s 0.62% decline. The TSX Information Technology sub-index is among the early laggards, with several mid-cap software and AI-adjacent names gapping down on no specific domestic news — a sign that overnight U.S. sentiment is the dominant driver. The weakness traces back to after-hours comments from a major U.S. Federal Reserve regional bank president late Wednesday, who signalled that the rate path remains “data-dependent and unresolved,” dampening hopes of a near-term pivot and pressuring growth-sensitive equities across North America.

Consumer Discretionary names on the TSX are also soft, with the Canadian dollar’s relative firmness — the loonie holding above the 1.41 handle against the USD — offering little export-side relief for discretionary manufacturers.

Early Volume and Gap Flags

Traders are flagging unusual volume in the energy complex in the first 15 minutes, with several large-cap TSX-listed producers trading at two to three times their 30-day average volume pace. Silver is the notable gap-down commodity this morning, falling 0.95% to $63.77/oz, diverging sharply from copper’s gains and suggesting the silver move is driven by speculative liquidation rather than fundamental metals demand. Watch the WTI/Brent spread and the TSX Energy sector’s ability to hold gains as the primary directional signals heading into mid-morning trade.